Analysis
The Anatomy of a Rate Hike
How the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and sustained high interest rates are structurally altering commercial lending and housing inventory.
Updated: Oct 2024
Current Briefing
The Inflation-Adjusted Policy Mandate.
Behind the rhetoric of federal spending lies a structural deficit. We parse the 2024 budgetary allocations, trade tariffs, and the reality of the US macroeconomic posture.
The Economic Engine
Data
Labor Participation Disconnect
Examining the gap between headline unemployment (3.8%) and prime-age labor force participation rates across key industrial states.
Updated: Sep 2024
Model
Mortgage Stress Test
Calculate housing affordability thresholds based on median local incomes vs current 30-year fixed treasury spreads.
Run ModelTax Policy vs. Personal Net Income
A structural understanding of the United States tax code separates standard political rhetoric from actual household economics. Progressive marginal brackets often mask the regressive nature of flat payroll taxes.
- ■ Read the 101 Guide on Marginal Rates
- ■ Calculate FICA Payroll Deductions
- ■ Understand Capital Gains & NIIT
Federal Individual Receipts (2024 Est.)
$2.5T
Individual Income Taxes
$1.7T
Payroll Taxes (FICA)
$0.5T
Corporate Income Taxes
Trade & Industrial Policy
The post-1990 consensus on free trade has collapsed. In its place, a bi-partisan commitment to industrial policy, export controls, and strategic on-shoring has emerged.
We track the implementation of the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and Section 301 tariffs, mapping billions in federal subsidies against actual factory construction and supply chain movements.
- Tariff Impact Calculator: Model cost passthrough for imported goods.
- Semiconductor Map: Tracking $52B in federal fab commitments.
Top Import Tariffs (Sec. 301)
| Sector | Avg Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| EVs (China) | 100% | Active |
| Semiconductors | 50% | Active |
| Steel & Aluminum | 25% | Maintained |
| Solar Cells | 50% | Active |
* Rates effective as of 2024 revisions. Data: USTR.
Macro Data Modeling
Understand the systemic forces driving inflation, federal borrowing, and yield curves.
View All Macro Models→
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Scale the absolute $34T debt against current total economic output.
→
Treasury Yield Spreads
Track the 2Y/10Y inversion as a leading recessionary indicator.
→
Fed Funds History
Compare the current tightening cycle to Volcker and Greenspan.
→
Trade Deficit Scaler
Normalize the $1T goods deficit against the broader economy.
Personal Policy Impacts
The Institutional Weekly
A dense, zero-fluff breakdown of the week's macroeconomic releases, congressional committee actions, and federal register updates. Sent every Friday.
No trackers. No spam.